Beyond direct federal employment, our district’s largest private employers rely heavily on federal funding. Intermountain Health and Northrop Grumman, the two largest private employers, depend extensively on federal payments. Northrop Grumman receives more than 80% of its revenue from the federal government. Intermountain Health depends on payments from Medicaid and Medicare in addition to federal grants. Employees at these institutions face risks due to the actions of DOGE, regardless of whether those actions are ultimately harmful or beneficial.

Current economic uncertainty extends to higher education. Utah State University, the largest employer in Cache County, and Weber State University, the fifth-largest employer in Weber County, both face budget reallocations from Utah House Bill 265 that might impact employment.

Workers across these federal agencies, private employers and higher education institutions have faced extraordinary stress recently, with many experiencing layoffs or job losses. They deserve our empathy and support. The rational economic response to the uncertainty faced by so many of our neighbors is to decrease spending, especially on nonessentials like restaurant meals, tickets to amusement parks, and outdoor equipment like skis and hiking boots. The likelihood of a substantial economic crisis with dire consequences for northern Utah rises by the minute. I hope our elected leaders understand the stakes and are spending time planning for the consequences of a substantial economic pullback that may erupt from our largest employers and seep into the broader community.

Some small employers in Utah Congressional District 1, however, are lucky in that they are less dependent both on federal government spending and on the income and spending of local residents. For example, Snowbasin Resort has diversified itself away from local economic conditions by adopting the Ikon Pass. The vast majority of revenue associated with Ikon sales comes from outside our community. Powder Mountain and Wasatch Peaks have diversified away from locals by offering private skiing attached to ultra-luxury real estate. Those new part-time residents might hire house sitters, cooks, maids, gardeners and other help.

There’s hope, but mostly for those positioned to serve the new local economic order. While federal dependence has left much of our district vulnerable to budgetary whims, these insulated sectors highlight a broader shift in northern Utah: economic resilience increasingly belongs to businesses who cater to outside wealth rather than those who rely on local wages.

The fragility faced by our local economy isn’t random. Utah’s 1st Congressional District might be caught in an example of Gordon Tullock’s “transitory gains trap.” The federal government’s role in shaping our economy — through defense contracts, healthcare reimbursements and education funding — has created a system where businesses and workers adapt their investments, skills and expectations around continued federal support. The problem is these gains could be transitory. When federal priorities shift, those who once benefited most from government dependence find themselves trapped, unable to quickly reallocate resources or transition to new industries. The very factors that once made northern Utah an economic hub — federal spending and employment — could act as rigid constraints.

These outcomes aren’t inevitable. Our leaders can help protect the local economy from these risks. The most important tool at their disposal is education. Strengthening our education institutions and ensuring that education remains affordable, broad-based and anti-fragile will prepare residents for a dynamic economy. Making sure it’s easy and affordable to start new businesses in northern Utah is a must and will accelerate returns from investment in education.

At the same time, local institutions and businesses should work to support one another. Weber State University, my employer, could prioritize hiring catering services from local restaurants and expanding opportunities for food trucks on campus, keeping more economic activity within our community. Strengthening partnerships between our two excellent universities and high schools can ensure students are prepared to compete in an ever-changing world.

Right now, our focus must be on empathy. The workers who are most affected by recent economic uncertainty deserve support, not just from their neighbors but from the leaders who have the power to shape Northern Utah’s future. Economic hardship is not an abstract concept — it means missed mortgage payments, businesses struggling to keep their doors open and young families reconsidering whether they can build a future here. Northern Utah risks becoming a cautionary tale of economic fragility; if we act, if we step up, we can ensure it remains a place where people can build prosperous lives.

Gavin Roberts is an associate professor of economics and chair of the economics department at Weber State University. He is a recipient of the Gordon Tullock Prize from the Public Choice Society and regularly shares his research locally, nationally and internationally. This commentary is provided through a partnership with Weber State. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent the institutional values or positions of the university.