Suriname’s Economy Forecast To Grow 55% In 2028 With First Oil

Suriname’s GDP will expand at a brisk 55% annual clip in 2028 when offshore block 58 comes online, the IMF has predicted. That’s a big jump compared to growth of 2.5% in 2023 and 3% by the tiny South American country. The IMF has pointed to October’s final investment decision (FID) announcement for block 58 and the expected spend of US$10.5bn. The IMF sees crude production in Suriname peaking at 73Mb in 2030 and 2031 before declining.

“In the long term, the oil reserves are not as large as that of Guyana, though Suriname is able to ramp up production rapidly,” the IMF said.

It’s been a similar story in Guyana, Suriname’s neighbor to the west. Whereas, historically, Guyana's GDP per capita was among the lowest in South America, extraordinary economic growth since 2020, averaging 42.3 percent over the last three years, brought GDP per capita to $20,360 in 2023, up from $6,477 in 2019. Guyana is now considered an upper-middle-income country.

In November, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) announced on Wednesday it has reached 500M barrels of oil produced from Guyana's offshore Stabroek block, just five years after it kicked off production at the location. According to Exxon, the first three projects--Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2 and Payara--are already pumping more than 650K bbl/day. The Exxon-led consortium which includes Hess Corp. (NYSE:HES) and China's Cnooc (OTCPK:CEOHF) has set a target to reach production of at least 1.3M bbl/day of oil by year-end 2027, a feat it hopes to achieve when six approved offshore projects come online. 

Data by the Guyana government has revealed that the consortium's agreement generated $6.33B for the partners last year, with Exxon netting $2.9B, Hess earning $1.88B, while Cnooc amassed $1.52B from Stabroek. Exxon Mobil owns 45% of the Stabroek block; Hess 30% while Cnooc owns a 25% stake.

Exxon will also start generating natural gas at its Guyana assets. Netherlands-based SBM Offshore (OTCPK:SBFFF) (OTCPK:SBFFY) has just completed the $1.23B sale of its fifth floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit to Exxon for use in offshore Guyana.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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