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Murray's Mailbag: Will Nevada's Steve Alford, UNLV's Kevin Kruger be back next season?


Kevin Kruger, left, and Steve Alford lead the Silver State men's basketball programs. (Getty Images)
Kevin Kruger, left, and Steve Alford lead the Silver State men's basketball programs. (Getty Images)
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I was interested to see how many questions I'd get for this week's Monday Mailbag as the Nevada men's basketball team's recent slide could lead to anger (lots of questions) or apathy (not many questions). Anger was the route this week with 40-plus questions and almost 4,500 words of answers. So, let's get to those answers. Thanks, as always, for the inquiries.

I'll give Steve Alford returning to Nevada in 2025-26 a 95 percent chance. He is still owed $5.95 million for the remainder of his Wolf Pack contract, including a $250,000 retention bonus due April 1. I don't see him going out on a season like this and forgoing that kind of cash, although we have seen veteran coaches get fed up with the current transfer-heavy, NIL system and retire. I'll give that path out a 5 percent chance, but I think he's back in 2025-26. Nevada certainly is not making a move.

I'll give Kevin Kruger returning to UNLV in 2025-26 a 20 percent chance. UNLV is treading water again this season at 11-9 overall and 5-4 in the Mountain West. To date, Kruger is 69-48 overall and 34-29 in league in his fourth season. While that's good enough to retain, he was not hired by current Rebels athletic director Erick Harper, who is pushing for UNLV to get a Big 12 invitation and seems to have a lot of money to throw around (see Dan Mullen's huge contract). Barring an NCAA Tournament berth, I think Kruger is out.

Steve Alford will be Nevada's basketball coach through the 2028-29 season as long as he wants to be. The buyouts in his contract are not realistic for Nevada to pay out. It would be a $5.7 million buyout after this season and still $1.5 million in March 2028 just to buy out the last year of his contract. Wolf Pack fans were asking me if Nevada should extend Alford's contract two months ago and now some want him removed. Wolf Pack fans were asking me if Nevada should extend the contract of football coach Jeff Choate after the first game of the season against SMU, and then Nevada went winless in league play. You have to let things play out. Alford's teams are coming off back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances. Nevada has not gotten its money's worth in the first six years of his contract, but he shouldn't be fired on merit, let alone when you add the buyout considerations.

Now, that's the more interesting question. But the answer is still, "No." I would not fire Steve Alford after this season even if the buyout was $0. That'd be too rash. Again, I don't think the last six years have lived up to the expectations for the Alford era, but it's not been bad. You're talking about two NCAA Tournament teams (2022-23; 2023-24); two good-but-not great teams (2019-20; 2020-21); one terrible season (2021-22); and one season headed in that direction (2024-25). Overall, he's still won more than 60 percent of his games at Nevada, so I would make 2025-26 a make-or-break kind of season if there were no buyout considerations. Obviously the expectations have to be higher for that sport than any other on campus given how the team is funded, which is much better than the Wolf Pack's other teams. The most disappointing part of Alford's tenure has been Nevada's 2-7 postseason record and the immense March struggles. But I do think the program will be championship level once the MW loses most of its good men's basketball teams for the 2026-27 season and Nevada moves into GSR Arena the year after that.

I think UNLV will have a new men's basketball coach next season and that coach will make more than Steve Alford's $1.35 million salary in 2025-26.

I don't think it's a talent issue. The last time Nevada had a bad season (2021-22), I made the mistake of saying the team had a talent issue. But it didn't. That team had Grant Sherfield, Desmond Cambridge, Will Baker, Warren Washington, Kenan Blackshear and Tre Coleman and still went 13-18 overall and 6-12 in the Mountain West. There was plenty of talent but the pieces didn't fit. Some of those guys had a lot of success after leaving Nevada or shifting into new roles at Nevada. Same thing this year. Nick Davidson and Kobe Sanders are All-MW talents; Xavier DuSell is the MW's best pure shooter; Coleman is a two-time All-MW defensive team honoree; Justin McBride and Tyler Rolison are talented; Brandon Love and K.J. Hymes are solid centers. There's talent here. The pieces and edge just haven't fit, and that's obviously for the coaching staff to figure out. If there's one issue with the players Nevada added this offseason, it was their defensive ability, but I pointed that out when the additions happened, so that was a known issue that needed to be resolved. Nevada's KenPom defense of 112 is Nevada's worst since that 2021-22 team (156th). And defense comes down to effort and mentality.

I'll give Nevada a 5-6 record over its final 11 games, which would put the Wolf Pack at 16-15 overall and 8-12 in league. This team is at risk of finishing the season below .500.

Of note: Nevada is 1-8 against the spread in the last nine games. Sports books are still putting too much weight on the team's first seven games. This team is not that team, and motivation won't be easy to create for the rest of the year.

Not if what I predicted above happens. That requires 20 wins. Also, the NIT is tightening its selection criteria to get more big-name teams in the field. Nevada's NET (76) and KenPom (85) are still in decent shape for an NIL berth, but that would require a lot better play over the next six weeks to maintain those numbers.

Steve Alford outlined plenty of issues after the San Diego State loss, which I wrote about here. But the bottom line for me is Nevada lost its confidence after being smacked by Washington State on Dec. 2 and has not recovered. Hard to win when you don't believe.

Nevada athletes have access to sports psychologists free of charge.

Miami spent a lot of NIL money on its roster yet again and is 4-16 overall with its coach quitting in the middle of the season after being picked to finish sixth in the 18-team ACC. North Carolina was second in the preseason ACC poll and is 13-8 and unlikely to make the NCAA Tournament. Indiana was picked to finish second in the preseason Big 10 poll and is 14-7 overall and 5-5 in league. Arkansas was under the direction of first-year head coach John Calipari and picked fourth in the preseason SEC poll; it is 1-6 in league play. Rutgers has two top-five NBA draft picks (Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper) and won't make the NCAA Tournament. UCLA is a mess. In the words of Johnny, the old-school movie gangster in Home Alone, "l could go on forever, baby." Lots of teams underachieve. And since we've had a lot of negative talk to this point in the Mailbag, I'm sharing that clip from Home Alone to lighten things up before we get back to dark and dreary.

While I get questions every week about Daniel Foster and his playing time, I don't think it's fair to him to ask questions like, "What dirt does Foster & fam have on coach Alford?" While college athletes are now paid, which means more critical commentary on them is allowable, the crap Foster gets on social media is, in fact, crappy. He's a guy who stuck at Nevada for five years, plays hard, does the little things, plays smart and seems like a great guy. Is he the most talented player? No. Does he get the most out of his talent? Yes. He doesn't dish out the minutes. There are ways to critique somebody's performance without accusing that player of blackmail. To me, that's disgusting, and I've stumped in these Mailbags for more playing time for Xavier DuSell, which would cut into Foster's minutes. But let's not cross a line with these criticisms.

It's also unfair to pin Nevada's downturn on Foster. Here are the stats of the Wolf Pack's early-season starters in its first seven games (when the team was good) and in its last 13 games (when the team has been bad):

Nick Davidson: 17 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.6 apg on 62.9 FG/61.1 3PT/65.2 FT shooting in first seven games; 14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.3 apg on 43 FG/31.5 3PT/75.0 FT shooting since then

Kobe Sanders: 16.7 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.0 apg on 52.9 FG/61.1 3PT/78 FT shooting in first seven games; 13.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 4.5 apg on 39.9 FG/25.5 3PT/76.7 FT shooting since then

Tre Coleman: 9.9 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 4.7 apg on 40.4 FG/38.1 3PT/76 FT shooting in first seven games; 8.0 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.8 apg on 38.6 FG/28 3PT/80 FT shooting since then

Brandon Love: 9.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.7 bpg on 77.4 FG/50 FT shooting in first seven games; 2.7 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.1 bpg on 47.8 FG/76.9 FT shooting since then

Look at those shooting percentages. If you think Nevada's downturn is purely a Foster issue, you're misguided, even, as I've said, I would prioritize playing time for others and keep him to a 10- to 15-minute role.

As to why Foster plays 21.8 minutes per game this season (and 22.7 per game last year), it's the defense, ball movement and basketball IQ, which are all good. He also ranks fifth on the team in effective field-goal shooting ahead of Nick Davidson, Kobe Sanders, Justin McBride, Tre Coleman and Chuck Bailey III. In MW games, Foster is first on the team in effective field-goal shooting, which is probably a surprise to most Wolf Pack fans. The advanced stats don't like his production, with PORPAGATU! ranking him eighth out of Nevada's nine rotation players ahead of only Bailey. That's because of his usage rate (10.1 percent), which is one of the nation's lowest.

It was easier to give Foster minutes the last two years when Nevada had three high-level scorers (Jarod Lucas, Kenan Blackshear and Will Baker/Nick Davidson) than it is to do now when the Wolf Pack has two high-level scorers (who are playing inefficiently in Davidson and Kobe Sanders) and no real third scorer. Its harder to play a low-usage offensive guy with the current lineup than the lineup Nevada has had the previous two years.

Steve Alford said after the New Mexico game, when Tyler Rolison didn't play, that he wanted to shrink the rotation and playing time was earned in practice. So, we can deduce that Rolison's practice performance was not up to snub. Before the New Mexico game, Rolison was averaging 20.0 minutes per game. Since then, he's averaged 9.6 minutes per game, not including one game when he didn't play. So, yeah, it's been weird, and given his inconsistent playing time, it's hard to imagine he'll be back for a junior season at Nevada. The Wolf Pack has really struggled with its prep point guards under Alford.

Tyler Rolison's shrunken playing time is explained above, and I tossed the Jaelen House as a best-case scenario comp on him last season. Obviously that step hasn't been taken, although House had two so-so years at Arizona State before becoming the electric player we saw at New Mexico the last three seasons.

Lots of questions in here, but I will address the conditioning one. I would agree it looks like the team is gassed too often given how slowly it plays. But the Wolf Pack's strength and conditioning coach, Matt Eck, (featured in this week's Wolf Pack All Access), is one of the best in the business and has been the strength and conditioning for plenty of great teams (the 2004 Sweet 16 men's basketball team; the 2010 football team; Jay Johnson's 2015 baseball team). Eck gets his teams prepared.

Nevada is 37th in the nation in 3-point shooting this season at 37.5 percent, one of the highest figures in program history, although that figure has slipped to 32 percent in league games from 41.9 percent in non-league games (second best in the nation). That, to me, means it's a confidence issue.

Relocate campus to a community that cares about college sports.

(OK, that's harsh, but I just don't think Northern Nevada is a great sports town. It's not a bad sports town. It's in the middle. Nevada men's basketball has garnered support when it's had Top 25-caliber teams. That's about it. Even some really good football teams have struggled to draw despite bottom-barrel ticket prices. And when you look at minor-league sports, the Reno Rage/Renegades came and went; the Reno Bighorns came and went; Reno 1868 FC came and went. The Wolf Pack's facilities are outdated, which certainly hurts attendance. But Northern Nevada is more of an event/outdoors community than a diehard sports community. To be fair, almost all West Coast college locations struggle to draw across the board at high levels. And to remove some blame from the fans, it certainly doesn't help that the Wolf Pack is arguably at the lowest point in its history in terms of competitiveness; more on that later this week.)

Counterpoint: If Nevada played the singing gopher at every media timeout of every home event, there would be constant sellouts.

In a recent "Week in 1,000 Words" column, I listed three Nevada teams that could win a Mountain West title this spring, those being baseball, men's tennis and women's swimming and diving. At minimum, all three should finish top three in their conference. So, there's some potential excitement there. Women's swim and dive usually sends a couple of athletes to the NCAA Championships, so that's worth looking forward to. Sophomore swimmer Scarlett Ferris should make NCAAs along with a diver or two. Nevada softball also starts the Victoria Hayward era in two weeks, and that program is coming off a 40-win season. Men's tennis could return to the NCAA Tournament after getting there in 2022. And my Little League team has its Triple-A tryouts the day before the Super Bowl, so you can cheer on the Little Dodgers at South Valleys Regional Park this spring. Lots to cheer for.

I doubt that's happening because you'd need funding for that program and also add a women's program as well to stay Title IX compliant, so that's probably an extra $2 million in funding annually. Nevada added a club hockey team this year in hopes of building that into a Division I program, so there's a current push in that direction. But the funding is the big hurdle. Arizona State has a hockey program, so I looked up how much that team cost the Sun Devils. It was $1,180,334 in the most recent fiscal year, and then double it for the matching women's team. It'd be cool to have a Division I hockey team in town, but there are financial requirements to making that happen. Hopefully the club hockey team can add that donor base.

That was discussed when the arena was announced since Lawlor will turn into a women's basketball-only arena. But, again, it will come down to money. Somebody will have to donate seven figures to significantly improve that place, which is far too big as a women's basketball arena. Ideally, you'd want an arena of between 3,000 to 4,000 to level up the atmosphere.

Yes, plenty have been frustrated with my line of questioning. It happens if you're doing your job correctly. My most vivid memory of that came in 2011 after Nevada football lost to Boise State, 30-10, with the Wolf Pack's touchdown coming in the final minute of garbage time. Before that final drive, the Wolf Pack had just 111 yards of offense on 13 series (it finished with 182 yards). So, I asked then-head coach Chris Ault if that was the worst offensive performance for his team since he came back to coaching in 2004. He didn't like that question. I checked Newspapers.com to read my game story from that loss.

My game story started: "What do you get when you take Colin Kaepernick out of the Wolf Pack's Pistol? Apparently a mediocre offense." Zing! If you think I'm tough now, I've softened. But it was accurate. Nevada's 182 yards of offense were its fewest since its 2006 game against Boise State, the last time it played the Broncos pre-Kaepernick. Anyway, Ault fired back right after my question about whether this was his team's worst offensive game since 2004, barking, "This is called, 'a pretty good football team' if you didn't notice. They happen to be the No. 4 football team in the country, so give them some credit. Give that defense some credit. That's the best defense we've seen." Later in the interview, Ault admitted, "Our offense was horrific." Ault also ripped Cody Fajardo after that game, saying the redshirt freshman quarterback who was nursing a non-throwing shoulder injury "didn't make much of an effort" to play. Ault was feisty. But that's why I love him. He could get mad at you one moment and be fine the next. It was never personal.

Will it look like? College football will be a semi-pro league disconnected from the rest of college athletics. The Power 4 will take over the NCAA championship, creating a split between it and the rest of the FBS, which forms a middle conference between the Power 4 and FCS.

Should it look like? College athletics should not exist. The U.S. is the only system that ties amateur athletics to higher education. It's weird.

You could see some other junior-college athletic departments folding up shop, but I don't think that's coming for Division I schools.

1) For fans, college athletics in the last 10 years has changed for the worse.

2) For athletes, college athletics in the last 10 years has changed for the better.

3) For coaches, college athletics in the last 10 years has changed for the better.

The fans get the short stick here as player retention is almost impossible, making a connection to your favorite team a tougher chore. But it's been good for the players (now getting paid and free to transfer as many times as they'd like) and coaches (a tougher job for sure, but their salaries have skyrocketed; Penn State just hired a defensive coordinator to a three-year contract $9.3 million deal, or $3.1 million per year. That's better than NFL money).

Dan Hurley (UConn), Bill Self (Kansas), Kelvin Sampson (Houston), Matt Painter (Purdue), Rick Barnes (Tennessee), Dana Altman (Oregon) are all old-school and seem to be doing fine with Top 25 teams. Heck, even Rick Pitino (St. John's) has a top-15 team in the nation right now. You definitely need to adjust to the new era, but plenty of older coaches have done so.

Sadly, the NFL and officials wanted the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again.

Who is the NFL's most popular fan? Taylor Swift.

Who is the NFL's most popular quarterback? Patrick Mahomes.

Who is the NFL's most popular non-quarterback? Travis Kelce.

Who is the NFL propping up as its next media star? Jason Kelce, who ESPN had interview his former head coach, Nick Sirianni, while gushing about how much he loves the Eagles while in Sirianni's office; no journalistic standard

Add that up and who does the NFL want in the Super Bowl? Chiefs and Eagles.

That being said, the Bills played poorly against the Chiefs on Sunday, which allowed the refs to have an influence.

I did my part. I responsibly cheered on the Bills while yelling at the television to try and get offensive coordinator Joe Brady to stop doing the quarterback sneak over left guard. He couldn't hear me, it turns out, because he kept running the play.

I thought the Bills were going to beat the Chiefs, but I also thought the Bills were going to lose to the Ravens. I was 0-2. This was the best Bills team of the Josh Allen era. But Buffalo always gets outcoached by Kansas City, and that's not a rip at the Bills' coaching staff. The Chiefs' staff is just unbelievable. Buffalo played a poor game. After not allowing Patrick Mahomes zero rushes in their regular-season game, the Bills' defensive line was undisciplined maintaining its gaps and let Mahomes run all over it. Buffalo also played man-to-man (not its base defense of zone) almost the entire game despite losing its best cornerback, Christian Benford, to a concussion in the first quarter. While I know a zone leaves you vulnerable to a big game from Travis Kelce, the man defense was ripped up and allowed Mahomes even more rushing opportunities. The offensive play-calling was bad. In addition to being stubborn on the quarterback run, the bubble screens didn't work and James Cook was underused. Chris Jones blew up the interior of Buffalo's offensive line, too. Throw in the refs blowing multiple calls, including that crucial fourth-down spot — why did the ref who couldn't see the ball get the right to spot it? — and it was not meant to be. When you play the Chiefs, you have to beat them and the refs. The Bills weren't good enough. They played a B-minus game, so we get the Chiefs in the Super Bowl again. But please tell me that there's not enough parity in baseball and the Dodgers are ruining the sport when the same teams are in the Super Bowl year in and year out. The NFL would be better with no salary cap. Then a team could beat the Kansas City Zebras.

I hate to break it to you, but the spending percentage gap between the Dodgers and the second-highest spending team in MLB in 2025 (the Mets) isn't nearly as high as the spending percentage gap between the Yankees and the second-highest spending team in MLB in the 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008 seasons. Guess how many World Series the Yankees won during those five seasons when it was outspending everybody? Zero. Guess how many World Series the Yankees played in during those five seasons? Zero. You can't buy World Series titles. Baseball's quirkiness and format don't allow for it. I also don't understand fans who are mad at the Dodgers instead of their owners. When the Dodgers were run by cheapskates (Fox) and a crook (Frank McCourt) from 1998-2012 and refused to spend on the team, I wasn't mad at the Yankees. I was mad at the Dodgers' ownership. TEAMS SHOULD TRY TO WIN.

I've interviewed Josh Allen at the American Century Championship before, and he was pleasant. He's obviously a great quarterback, and the Bills just wasted another year of his prime. If the Bills can't get to a Super Bowl (let alone win one) with him, the franchise should fold. Yes, the Chiefs are hard to beat, but I believe Allen is as good as Patrick Mahomes. He's played even with Mahomes in their four playoff matchups but been let down by Buffalo's defense not being able to get a stop while kicking off with 13 seconds remaining in 2022; Tyler Bass missing a field goal in 2024, not to mention too huge drops on deep passes to wideouts in that game; and now Dalton Kincaide's drop in 2025. I always thought the Packers getting to just one Super Bowl in Aaron Rodgers's 15 seasons as a starter was the most criminal misuse of a star quarterback in NFL history, but the Bills are trying to challenge that standard.

It'd be Bills-Chiefs.

We should get dates next month. Last year, the Mountain West announced its full football schedule on Feb. 29.

I would not use Nevada's website for historical head-to-head matchups. It is not complete. I would use the Wolf Pack's media guides, which confirms Nevada football played the Alaska Clippers on Nov. 5, 1944 in Edmonton, Canada and won 12-0. That's the only game in program history played in Canada, per the media guide. Wikipedia confirms Nevada played the Clippers in Canada, although it says the game was played in 1946. But old newspaper clippings show the game was played in 1944. It was an exhibition game between Nevada and a group of players from a U.S. Army Air Force base in Canada.

That's for the city council to decide since they'll vote on the proposal. Over the years, I've been staunchly against using taxpayer money to build sports arenas for billionaires, calling the Raiders' home Boondoggle Stadium and the A's future home Boondoggle Ballpark, so it'd been disingenuous to change my tune since the project is local. I'd rather see monetary welfare for those who truly need it. And I'd need a closer look at the financial projections from a third party to fully form my opinion on the GSR Arena request, which is a lot different than the Las Vegas projects because there would not be a city bond and would only be a request for what is essentially a waiver on its future property tax bill.

I've never seen one second of one episode of The Sopranos.

Portland Trees

Salt Lake City Bees

Sacramento Keys

Vancouver Grizzlies

I'm surprised there's never been an NFL team in Canada. And I just wanted my mascot names to rhyme with trees.

I would guess the rationale is, "Babe Ruth and Willie Mays weren't unanimous Hall of Famers, so Ichiro isn't, either," which is dumb, but I can somewhat understand it. I obviously would have voted for Ichiro, and he should have been unanimous. I don't think that voter gets his or her ballot taken away, though. The only time I've seen that happen over a vote is when Dan LeBatard allowed Deadspin to do a reader vote with his ballot. He did that over disenchantment with the voting process on steroid-era players. And while steroid-era players who tested positive (or were presumed to be doping) have not been voted in, I find it weird Carlos Beltran, who ran the Astros' sign-stealing trash-can scandal is on the eve of being elected. That level of cheating had as much or more impact on the game as rampant, across-the-board steroid use. If you don't vote for steroid guys like Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez (who both had a lower vote percentage this year than Beltran), than you shouldn't vote for Astros of the trash-can era like Beltran, Joe Altuve and Alex Bregman, and you could include Justin Verlander in there, too, since he was on those teams and didn't stop the cheating.

Now you've got me worked up talking about the Cheating Astros, so time to end the Mailbag. See y'all next week!

Sports columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. He writes a weekly Monday Mailbag despite it giving him a headache and it taking several hours to write. But people seem to like it, so he does it anyway. Contact him at crmurray@sbgtv.com or follow him on Twitter @ByChrisMurray.

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