Semtech Stock Rallies On Q4 Beat, But Analysts Lower Price Targets Citing Nvidia-Linked Revenue Delays – Retail Disagrees

Semtech Corp. (SMTC) shares surged more than 18% in midday trade on Friday after the semiconductor company posted a fourth-quarter earnings beat. 

Despite the rally, analysts lowered their price targets, citing broader sector pressures rather than company-specific concerns.

The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.40, surpassing expectations of $0.32. 

Revenue came in at $251 million, slightly ahead of estimates of $249.3 million and up 30% from $192.9 million in the same period a year earlier.

Wall Street remains positive on Semtech, even as price targets were adjusted. UBS, Stifel, Craig-Hallum, and Roth MKM continue to rate the stock a ‘Buy,’ while Northland maintains an ‘Outperform’ rating, according to TheFly

The sharpest price target revisions came from Craig-Hallum, which lowered its target from $70 to $55, and Northland, which cut its projection from $66 to $48. 

Northland attributed its revision to multiple compression across the semiconductor sector rather than a deterioration in Semtech’s business fundamentals.

Other analysts pointed to delays in revenue linked to Nvidia-related products as a key factor behind the caution. 

However, they also highlighted growth in data centers and strength in the fiber optics business as offsetting factors.

Roth MKM remains the most bullish on the stock, maintaining a $65 price target and arguing that Semtech’s valuation is "deeply discounted." The brokerage also noted a recovery in the company’s LoRa wireless technology and Sierra Wireless division, signaling broader stability.

SemTech retail sentiment and message volume on March 14 as of 1:15 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SemTech’s shares flipped to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a day ago, while chatter surged to ‘high’ levels. 

According to platform data, Semtech’s ticker saw a 2,000% surge in message volume over the past 24 hours. 

Some traders questioned the logic of analyst downgrades, given Semtech’s strong Q4 performance.

One user noted that the stock’s rally should have been stronger and dismissed the price target cuts as unwarranted.

SemTech’s stock has gained nearly 65% over the past year, with gains of 38% in 2025.

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