From Freedom Square to Europe: Civil Society Rises Against Slovakia’s Pro-Russian Turn

27 January 2025

100,000 Slovaks across the country assembled last Friday to peacefully protest against Slovakia’s pro-Russian turn under the leadership of Robert Fico. Combined with the loss of another two coalition MPs, this civil society push marks a major challenge to Fico’s position. A motion of non-confidence will likely be debated this week, with another protest scheduled for 6 February.

Meanwhile, Hungary has signalled that it may block the rollover of EU sanctions against Russia unless Ukraine resumes gas transit. Should the dispute not be resolved by the end of the month, it could spell trouble for G7 plans to loan Ukraine $50 billion.

Hungary threatens to block rollover of Russian sanctions unless  gas transit reopens via Ukraine – while Poland strengthens US ties

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

  • European Commission (EC) President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the world economy has started fracturing along new lines in response to recently inaugurated President Donald Trump’s threats of sweeping tariffs.
  • Speaking at Davos, von der Leyen said that ‘A lot is at stake for both sides. So our first priority will be to engage early, discuss common interests, and be ready to negotiate. But we will always stand by our principles.’ She also indicated that:
    • the 50th anniversary of EU-PRC relations is ‘an opportunity to engage and deepen our relationship with China – and…our trade and investment ties’;
    • the EU must adapt to an era of ‘harsh geostrategic competition’, having relied on cheap Russian energy for too long and too often outsourced its security;
    • the EC has to undergo ‘a far-reaching simplification of our sustainable finance and due diligence rules’;
    • a transactional approach now trumps a moral one, with the first trip of the new EC scheduled to India.
  • Polish PM Donald Tusk reiterated that Europe should welcome Trumps calls for NATO members to ramp up their military spending to 5% of GDP.
  • While outlining the activities of the Polish EU Council (EUCO) Presidency, Tusk explained that ‘Only an ally can wish another ally to get stronger. This is not what an opponent of Europe would say,’ before highlighting that Poland spends the most among NATO members as a proportion of its GDP, at 4.1% in 2024.
  • For more on the importance of developing joint security, see this speech by EU Top Diplomat Kaja Kallas from the Annual Conference of the European Defence Agency.
  • Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domański called for increased economic cooperation with the US in energy, trade and defence in a letter to ministers before the Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting on 21 January.
  • Ministers also brainstormed how to bring down energy prices across the bloc, reportedly breathing new life into the decades-old idea of an ‘energy union’.
  • READ HERE: How CEE must recalibrate to make trade a tool of security.
  • Polish FM Radosław Sikorski said that Polish-American relations have ‘strong foundations’ after his first call with new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
  • Sikorski later said at a press conference that Rubio had agreed to meet him in February and possibly visit Poland later this year, and that this was ‘proof that the United States sees Poland as an example, as an ally’.
  • Hungary agreed on 24 January that the renewal of Russian sanctions can be put on the agenda of a Foreign Affairs Council today, but will reportedly only agree to it if the EU persuades Ukraine to resume Russian gas transit.
  • If unanimity is not reached by the end of the month, Hungary would create a problem for the G7 nations, as the frozen assets are being used as collateral for a $50 billion G7 loan to help Ukraine.
  • Tusk recently stated that if Hungary blocks the automatic extension of EU sanctions, it will be evidence that Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán is acting in Moscow’s interests.
  • Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó responded by saying that ‘It might be hard for a Soros agent to understand, but when it comes to teams, we play for the Hungarian team.’
  • Trump’s threatening of Vladimir Putin with new sanctions if Moscow doesn’t come to the negotiating table (more on this later) weakened Hungary’s threat, given Budapest expected a new administration to be on its side on the topic of restrictions.
  • Now, FM Szijjártó has said that US Secretary of State Marc Rubio will conduct ‘a review by the new administration of the earlier steps taken out of revenge’ – referring to earlier sanctions on Hungary.
  • Orbán met with Slovak PM Robert Fico last week as the pair sought to find a way to retain their low energy prices and condemn Ukraine for its hostility. 
  • This is despite the fact that Ukraine has said it is ready to transit gas from Azerbaijan to Europe, Zelenskyy confirmed on 25 January – even if experts are doubtful that Azerbaijan has the capacity to supply meaningful volumes to Europe via Ukraine.
  • MEP Michał Wawrykiewicz (EPP) compared Orbán’s actions to Putin’s during a debate on Hungarian espionage of the EP, accusing Hungary of sabotaging EU unity. Csaba Molnar (S&D) highlighted Hungary’s use of intelligence services against political opponents and called for an EU investigation.
  • A Czech proposal to limit the movement of Russian diplomats within the Schengen area is gaining traction and could be included in the EU’s 16th sanctions package against Russia, according to Jitka Látal Znamenáčková, Czechia’s Permanent Representative to the EU’s Political and Security Committee.
  • The upcoming sanctions package, aimed at the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will also target firms aiding Russia’s military and measures against Moscow’s shadow fleet used to circumvent sanctions.
  • A Czech working document has also outlined proposals to deepen the EU integration of Ukraine and Moldova, focusing on sectors such as energy, agriculture and telecommunications.
  • Initially backed by eight EU countries, with the possibility of more joining, the working document is due to be presented to European Affairs Ministers on 28 January.
  • Germany’s likely next chancellor Friedrich Merz criticised the EU during campaign rallies last week, saying that Brussels concentrates too much on small regulations while not tackling the big challenges in foreign, defence and trade policy.
  • With this in mind, Berlin is urging the EU to take a tougher stance on hybrid threats coming from Russia, including by expanding the sanctions regime and limiting access to Europe by Moscow’s diplomatic missions.
  • Merz has also warned companies about the ‘great risk’ of investing in China, saying that the state under his leadership would not help them if such bets failed.
  • The chancellor candidate further promised to overhaul Germany’s immigration policy, including permanent border checks that may jeopardise the EU common travel area.
  • Merz has also proposed a new Polish-German friendship treaty as part of steps to improve relations if elected chancellor. The candidate said this would mark the 35th anniversary of the countries’ existing bilateral agreement, taking those relations ‘to a new level’, he said.
  • Tusk described comments made by Elon Musk to supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party that they should ‘move beyond’ guilt for the country’s history as ‘ominous’.
  • This comes just two days before the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz extermination camp on 27 January, which will likely be attended by US VP JD Vance.
  • Meta’s Facebook, Elon Musk’s X, YouTube and other tech companies have agreed to do more to tackle online hate speech under an updated code of conduct that will now be integrated into EU tech rules, the EC said on 20 January.
  • The EU has also been urged to consider banning TikTok – as was the case in the US for a day – as ‘There is a legitimate concern that the data could end up in the hands of Chinese authorities’, Estonian FM Margus Tsakhna has said.
  • The EC will reportedly propose establishing an advanced US-style research-project agency to invest in strategic technologies as part of a drive to boost the blocs industry.
  • The Competitive Compass, due next month and meant to provide a five-year plan for competing with the US and China, will also call for new aggregated AI infrastructure.
  • The EU will also ask the US to re-evaluate its tier system for AI chips which has left countries like Poland, Czechia and the Baltics with less access than Western Europe.
  • On  21 January, the EUCO adopted recommendations for seven countries to correct their excessive deficit situation within a set time period, including Poland, Slovakia and Romania.
  • The EUCO also greenlighted the net expenditure paths and medium-term fiscal-structural plans of Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, among others.

Trump promises to impose greater sanctions on Moscow if it fails to come to a peace deal – and suspends most foreign aid programmes

UKRAINE

  • In Donald Trump’s first comments on Ukraine since his inauguration, the US President threatened to ‘impose high taxes, tariffs and sanctions on everything that Russia sells’ if a ‘deal’ to end the war is not concluded in the near future.
  • He also confirmed plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, who in turn said he wanted to meet with Trump to ‘discuss issues of interest to Moscow and Washington’.
  • Putin’s words prompted a response from the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, who said the Russian leader is trying to agree on the fate of Europe without Europe and talk about Ukraine without Ukraine.
  • US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued an order suspending funding for most foreign assistance programmes for 90 days. 
  • This includes all USAID operations in Ukraine, but not security assistance, which ‘does not fall under the restrictions of the recent foreign assistance order because it only applies to development programs, not military support.’
  • The Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) programme, which allowed over 150,000 Ukrainians to seek refuge in the US with financial sponsors, was also suspended.
  • President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a contingent of at least 200,000 European peacekeepers would need to be sent to Ukraine to ensure peace in any settlement – while visiting the World Economic Forum in Davos on 21 January.
  • Zelenskyy also called on Europe to become a stronger global player that is able to guarantee security for itself and others. We are at another ‘turning point in the global world order’, he added, ‘which some consider a problem…others call an opportunity’.
  • EC VP and Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis promised that the EU will provide Ukraine with €35 billion in financial assistance in 2025 under the G7 ERA credit initiative and the Ukraine Facility programme.
  • The EU has also signed off a €14 million programme to help Ukraine achieve EU membership, titled Ukraine2EU, with the aim to support attempts to reform Ukrainian state institutions so that they meet the standards required to join the 27-nation bloc.
  • Poland’s state development fund PFR’s mutual funds company PFR TFI will invest jointly with the Polish IT group Euvic to develop its business in Ukraine by providing funding for the consolidation of five IT companies.
  • It was reported last week that this is the first project of the PFR group financing investments in Ukraine and an important step in the context of building the presence of Polish companies in this market.
  • The German KNDS Deutschland, manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks, officially opened a joint venture with one of Ukraine’s defence companies. The newly created company will specialise in the maintenance and repair of military equipment supplied by the German company to the Ukrainian Defence Forces.
  • Also, Israeli Deputy FM Sharren Haskel proposed transferring Russian weapons captured by the IDF to the Ukrainian side during a meeting with Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk on 21 January.
  • Cyber experts from the Ukrainian Defence Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate launched a large-scale cyberattack against MegaFon, one of Russia’s leading mobile and internet providers.
  • Ukraine also reportedly hit a Russian oil refinery and targeted Moscow during an attack involving a wave of at least 121 drones, one of the largest single operations of its kind during the war.

Šimečka says early elections are the ‘only solution’ as tens of thousands protest across Slovakia against Fico and his coalition

CZECHIA

Subscribe

Democratic security comes at a price. What is yours? By subscribing or donating now gain access to analysis, forecasts and scenarios by leading analysts and reporters who monitor democratic risks and develop policy debate from Central Europe on Central Europe.

MonthlyVAT included

€4/month

See all details

  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly outlook on democratic security in CEE delivered by e-mail
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Invitations to all Visegrad Insight events online and offline

AnnualVAT included

€40/year

See all details

  • Individual subscribers only. Check our CORPORATE OFFER below
  • 15% Discount (8 EUR off monthly cost if paid annually)
  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly outlook on democratic security in CEE delivered by e-mail
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Invitations to all Visegrad Insight events online and offline

Student OR Donation

Choose your contribution

See all details

  • Full access to articles and all reports in PDF
  • Weekly newsletter with essential highlights
  • Some Visegrad Insight events invitations

I am a representative of an institution/business. Is there a corporate offer?

The annual subscription for up to ten institutional users: EUR 999
GO TO CHECKOUT

For a tailor-made offer email us: contact@visegradinsight.eu 

  • Access to all articles for your team
  • Access to all Reports for your team
  • Every Monday a Weekly Outlook with an update on key developments in Central Europe delivered by e-mail
  • Every Thursday a newsletter with the most important highlights and invitations
  • Personal invitations to Visegrad Insight Events
  • Foresight, policy, and risk analysis reports (on-demand)

Intelligence prepared by a group of Visegrad Insight Fellows from all across

Can I receive an invoice?

Yes. You will receive a receipt immediately after purchase and a VAT invoice upon request. The subscription amount includes tax. In case of a donation, there is no tax.

Are my credit card details safe?

Yes. The payment is processed by STRIPE www.stripe.com entrusted also by Amazon, Zoom, Booking.com and used by other global NGOs and businesses in the world. We do not store your credit card details.

How modify or cancel my subscription?

At any moment you can manage your subscription and account details. Sign in to modify or cancel.