Sen. Merkley Aims To Ban Airlines From Selling Middle Seats. Here’s Why That Won’t Fly.

Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley from Oregon says he plans to introduce a bill to ban the sale of middle of seats on airplanes during the coronavirus pandemic. He reportedly was on an American Airlines flight and felt it was too crowded. While this kind of law would be popular for some, it has zero basis in science and a shockingly naive understanding of basic economics. It is law by emotion, not by data.

There are plenty of data to suggest that wearing masks and proper distancing combine to effectively reduce the risk of virus transmission. Airlines are requiring masks and stepping up enforcement, including banning non-complaint passengers from flying while the mask requirement is in place. Banning the sale of middle seats does not create social distancing, and I have not seen any study that positively links empty middle seats with reduced virus spread. The combination of vertical airflow, HEPA filtering, everyone sitting forward, facing the back of a seat or a bulkhead, and mask enforcement creates an environment that some have compared to a hospital. Sitting 18 inches away from someone creates no meaningful incremental barrier as compared with sitting next to them. So, strike one on the science for this bill.

As for economics, not allowing airlines to sell a third of their product has significant consequences for airlines and the economy. Fares would skyrocket to cover the costs of the airplane, fuel, people, and facilities needed to operate a commercial flight. Decades of data show how price elastic air travel is, meaning that small changes in price result in outsized changes in demand. Lower the price a little, and many more people choose to travel by plane. Raise prices, and demand drops like a rock except for only those who have no choice but to fly. This bill would put hundreds of thousands out of work, and again slow down the economy rather than keep it on its ever so shallow positive slope. I learned these ideas at Princeton’s Public Policy School, but maybe the Senator missed that class when he attended. Strike two on the economics for this bill.

Lastly, airlines compete for customers and competition and this produces better products. American loudly stated that they will be selling all of their seats and Senator Merkley saw the effects of that in real time. But other airlines, including Alaska, Delta, JetBlue, and Southwest are all choosing to block seats on airplanes as a strategy to attract customers. All four airlines fly to Oregon, by the way. Senator Merkley and others who are bothered by American’s policy can send American a message and reward airlines that are doing the right thing by flying on airlines that are voluntarily offering seat blocks. Strike three for suggesting regulation when the market is already directly the addressing the core issue in an efficient and customer friendly way.

This bill should die quietly as it is bad policy that is out of step with the realities of science and economics. If you live in Oregon and aren’t convinced that airline travel is safe yet, there is always Amtrak. On that trip, you’d have plenty of time to think up new and crazy ways to regulate the economy into oblivion.