Playing the sanctions game

The July meeting between Putin and Trump in Helsinki did not put an end to the "war of sanctions", but it seems to have channeled it into a symbolic route, progressively dissipating the real threat.

Moscow (AsiaNews) - On 8 August, new sanctions against Russia were announced by the American Senate. Beyond the nervous reactions of the markets, it seems more like a symbolic action, intended in reality to water down the Russo-American conflict.

In fact, the Russian financial markets have been in free fall for a few days; the dollar appreciated on the ruble by almost 4%, from 63 to 66 rubles. The cause is the concentration of sanctioning measures threatened by the American Senate and by President Trump, the effectiveness of which has yet to be demonstrated.

The US State Department announced its decision to apply a series of sanctions in response to the proven use of Russian Novichok poison in an attempt to poison former spy Sergej Skrypal and daughter Julia. The spy was believed to have been in possession of information on Russian interference in American politics, which according to the Washington Post, would be the second reason for this last wave of sanctions. These could be mitigated if Russia demonstrates its estrangement to the matter within three months.

The formal reason for the sanction would therefore be the use of chemical weapons, a reason used only in the last three years against Assad's Syria and Kim Yong-Un's Korea, and which was the cause of the war in Iraq against Saddam Hussein. In fact, the 1991 Biological Weapons and Warfare Elimination Act, , which obliges the US President to act against any international violation, has been applied.

The first round of sanctions will enter into force on 22 August, and the second within 90 days, if Russia fails to meet the required conditions and will not promise not to use more biological or chemical weapons in the future, admitting international inspectors to the planned sites. The American threat certainly has a great political significance, but according to the experts, it has a little more than a symbolic economic effectiveness.

The United States declares its intention to stop all aid to Russia, and to prevent the exportation of weapons and financial funding of arms in Russia, all of which are in fact already impossible. Humanitarian aid "to Russia and its people", coming from public and private collections, will not be stopped, and the prohibition on importing sensitive materials to Russia will not concern collaboration in the cosmonautical field. The ban also formally concerns the licenses of air transport companies, but the American sources have already assured that Aeroflot flights will not be prevented.

It is unlikely that this second wave of sanctions will see Russia's "repentance" over the attempted murder of Skrypal and interference with the US elections. In fact,  the Russian government has always proclaimed its innocence. Even here, however, the effect could be very limited. President Trump will be obliged to apply three measures on six proposals, ranging from purely symbolic (blocking of international financial aid, bans on US banks offering credit to the Russians, lowering the level of diplomatic relations) to the more incisive ones, such as the total ban on the export of materials from the USA (with the exception of agricultural and food products) and imports of Russian materials, in addition to the total closure of the airspace to the Russians. It is difficult for Trump to decide to apply the "hard" part of the sanctions.

The July meeting between Putin and Trump in Helsinki did not therefore serve to end the "war of sanctions", but it seems to have channeled it on the symbolic side, progressively emptying it of a real threat. Moreover, according to experts, the American and, above all, European West can not materially do without Russian gas for at least another two or three years, and this makes a total break in relations impossible.

• Russia
• USA
• sanctions
• economy
• Sergej Skrypal
• Trump
• Putin